US Elections 2020: Part 2- The Senate elections
This post is the second part of my series of articles related to the 2020 US Elections. This one is about the elections for the US Senate, while the first one is about the US Presidential election. You can read my first part by clicking here.
Alright. 35 Senate seats are up for grabs, 33 of them are re-election seats, while 2 of them are special elections for Arizona and Georgia. There are a lot of interesting elections for the Senate and even in last March, the senate elections weren’t this competitive. Most of the seats that are up for reelection are held by Republican incumbents and hence the Republican party has a lot to lose this election largely because of the anti-Trump climate that we saw even in the 2018 mid-term elections.
Let’s have a look at the elections on a state by state basis. I’ll begin with the most competitive states and end with the least competitive ones that don’t require a detailed analysis because they are safe states for each party. I won’t be discussing much about each party’s safe states, but will just mention them in the end. The Democratic party has less to defend and the ones that they have to defend like Illinois, New Mexico, Massachusetts, etc. are safe states for Democrats. The seat that Democrats will be losing is Alabama’s senate seat, which is held by Senator Doug Jones and Michigan might be a bit competitive, but Biden’s popularity in Michigan will help the Democrats there. Anyways, let’s begin.
Kansas
The Kansas senate election will be between Democrat Barbara Bollier and Republican Roger Marshall. Barbara Bollier is among the few Republicans who switched to Democratic Party from the Republican Party in 2018 after Donald Trump’s win pushed the Republican Party further to the right. All polls indicate Kansas to stay Red in this election too, meaning Trump will win the state and Roger Marshall will win too. But recent data about Barbara Bollier’s campaign donations tell a much more positive story for the Democratic nominee. Barbara Bollier has received over $20 million in campaign donations, while her Republican challenger Roger Marshall has received only a fourth of that amount.
However, Roger Marshall has the backing of multiple super PACs, which will help him win the election without much hindrance. And, let’s not forget that Donald Trump will be in in the same ballot which is an advantage for Roger Marshall. If this election was a mid-term election, then this race will be narrower. However, given the spending records for Barbara Bollier and her popularity in the state, she can win the senate seat, but for now, the likelihood for Barbara Bollier to win the election is less.
Alabama
It does feel funny that Alabama, a deep red state has a Democratic Incumbent, Doug Jones. In 2017, when Jeff Sessions held Alabama’s senate seat, he was appointed as the US Attorney General by Trump and his seat was left vacant. So, to fill the seat, as per Alabama state rules, an election was held, with the Democratic nominee being Doug Jones and the Republican nominee Roy Moore. No one in 2017 would have even predicted that a Democrat would win a state-wide election in Alabama.
A month before the election, in early November, a lot of sexual misconduct allegations were reported against Roy Moore and as a consequence, all endorsements for Roy Moore were withdrawn and his popularity declined steeply in Alabama. This allowed Doug Jones to win the Senate election by a narrow margin, placing a Democrat in Alabama’s senate seat for the first time in decades.
In 2020, Doug Jones will be up against Tommy Tuberville, who is running for election for the first time, but despite him being a newcomer, it is going to be extremely hard for Doug Jones to retain his seat in Alabama. Almost all polls are in favour of Tommy Tuberville and Tuberville has no political baggage behind him and hence it is hard for Doug Jones to campaign against a candidate who has no scandal. Two polls in RCP show Tuberville ahead by 12 and 8 points respectively, but Doug Jones holds the incumbent advantage, but will still lose the seat to Tommy Tuberville by at least 6 to 8 points.
Arizona
The Republican Party has made one of the biggest mistakes by appointing Martha McSally to fill John McCain’s seat after his death. In fact, in the 2018 US Senate elections, Martha McSally was the Republican Candidate for US Senate from Arizona and she lost the election to Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema. Following her support for Donald Trump after his presidential election win, Martha McSally’s popularity began declining that she lost the 2018 election to a Democratic challenger.
After John McCain’s death, Arizona’s governor Doug Ducey appointed her to the senate and now she is going to face an extremely tough challenger. The Democratic nominee for Arizona’s senate seat is an astronaut and former US Representative Gabrielle Gifford’s husband Mark Kelly. Mark Kelly’s campaign has been amazing and to be honest, he has been consistently expanding his electorate in Arizona. If the Republican nominee was someone moderate unlike Martha McSally, Mark Kelly would have had a tough time. Now, Mark Kelly has been doing very well and his recent debate performance was good too.
This senate seat was held by John McCain for almost 30 years and now, by nominating Martha McSally for the Senate seat, the Republicans are going to lose this reliable seat to the Democrats.
Kentucky
Kentucky isn’t by any means competitive and the Senate majority leader and incumbent Mitch McConnell will easily win the election and retain the seat. The Democrats have fielded Amy McGrath who despite her military background is weak in her policy stances and a moderate Democrat like her will not be able to gain enough traction in the state. Mitch McConnell, despite his low approval ratings, has a huge likelihood for winning the state just like he did in the previous elections.
However, I included this state only to add a note about Charles Booker. Charles Booker contested against Amy McGrath in the Democratic primaries. The race narrowed up in the final days. The Democratic Party leadership was behind Amy McGrath and that helped her win the primaries. But had they nominated an anti-establishment candidate like Charles Booker, they would have had a fighting chance against Mitch McConnell. The establishment Democrats are really alienating young voters and at least in the next mid-term elections, they should try fielding more progressive candidates to increase voter turnout which will give them a better edge in elections.
Michigan
Despite Biden having a decent lead over Trump in the state of Michigan, polls for Michigan’s senate seat show a tighter race between Democratic incumbent Senator Gary Peters and Republican candidate John James. John James is kind of a star candidate for the Republicans who can turn things to his side in the Senate elections.
John James has received more in campaign donations than Gary Peters so far and has been comfortably spending money in ads. And Gary Peters has the backing of multiple Super PACs, which will help John James tighten the race as we near the election date. However, Gary Peters has outspent John James until now, but the polls are indicating a race that is narrowing down. So, Biden may win the state while John James could win the Senate seat by pulling the minority voters who might vote for Biden in the presidential race, but vote for John James in the Senate race. This might be one of those surprises on election night. Gary Peters’ win is dependent on Biden’s performance in the state.
North Carolina
North Carolina is a very interesting case because, despite recent events, people are so angry with the Republican Party and Trump that want to oust them at all costs. The Democratic candidate for US Senate for North Carolina is Cal Cunningham and the Republican candidate is the incumbent Thom Tillis.
Right from the start of the election season, Senator Thom Tillis has been trailing behind his democratic challenger and the margins have only grown. Cal Cunningham was recently caught up in a ‘sexting’ scandal and despite that, the polls indicate virtually no change in ratings. The Republicans won’t be able to attack Cal Cunningham for this because they themselves were the cheerleaders of Donald Trump, who is no stranger to scandals. If a scandal like this doesn’t shake up the base of Cal Cunningham, then I am not sure what will. This is an indicator of the strong opposition for Donald Trump and his enablers in the Senate.
And Joe Biden is doing good in North Carolina and unless and until Joe Biden gets caught up in a much larger scandal, North Carolina is going to be safe for both Cal Cunningham’s senate bid and Joe Biden.
Maine
Maine’s election is going to be extremely interesting on election night. Maine is proof that a senator with the highest approval rating can turn into the least-liked senator in his/her state. Just like every other state, Maine has two major candidates contesting in the Senate elections. The Democrats have fielded the Speaker of the House of Representatives of Maine, Sara Gideon, and on the Republican side, the incumbent senator Susan Collins is defending her seat. Maine is a relatively progressive state compared to the other lean Republican states and Susan Collins has served as a senator for over 20 years with a consistent approval rating of above 50%. She won the previous senate election with a margin of 37%. But after Trump won in 2016, despite her being a staunch opponent of Trump, her votes to nominate Brett Kavanaugh and give tax breaks for the wealthy did not go well with her previous records and among the Maine electorate. After her vote to not convict Donald Trump, her popularity almost took a 180-degree turn, where she went from being the senator with the highest approval rating to the senator with lowest approval ratings.
Susan Collins’ steady decline in approval ratings over the year has turned the tides and now Sara Gideon has more than a fighting chance in the state. In fact, it is Susan Collins who has to fight harder to retain the Senate seat, while Sara Gideon only has to ensure that she doesn’t mess things up. Susan Collins didn’t do that well in the recent debates too and that is a worrying issue for the incumbent senator. However, things could go either way and we have to wait until election night.
Colorado
The Democrats have taken a brilliant decision by nominating former governor John Hickenlooper for the senate race against the Republican incumbent Cory Gardener.
Cory Gardener won the 2014 election by a small margin and he is one of the most bipartisan and moderate members of the Senate, but the state has been turning more progressive over the years. John Hickenlooper is a popular person in Colorado and he had good approval ratings when he was the governor of Colorado. The Democrats could not have picked a better option for the Colorado Senate seat and it is highly likely that he is going to win the senate race by a comfortable margin and his win might also help Biden widen his lead in Colorado.
Georgia
Georgia is the only state to have both its senate seats available for grabs. The state did trend blue in the mid-term elections and Stacey Abrams’ campaign is proof for that.
For the Senate race, Democrat Jon Ossoff will be competing against Republican incumbent David Purdue. In the special elections, Kelly Loeffler is running a far-right campaign and is surprisingly doing well.
The problem with the Georgia special elections is that all the candidates will be on the same ballot and to win the election, the candidate has to get 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff election that’ll be held on January 5th, once the new House of Representatives take office. The January 5 runoff will be between the highest performing candidates. As of today, none of the candidates is polling above 50% and for now, it seems like a runoff will be the most likely scenario.
For the Senate election, polls are indicating a neck on neck election for Jon Ossoff and David Purdue. Even though Jon Ossoff has been trailing behind David Purdue in terms of campaign donations, the fact that the polls are indicating a close election itself is a good sign for the Democrats. Georgia has been a traditionally red state and a Democrat doing this well itself is surprising. The growing support for Democrats in Georgia is large because of the increase in population in the Atlanta metropolitan areas in the counties surrounding it. However, based on previous elections, in 2020, David Purdue is likely to win this state. The Democrats may have a fighting chance in the next elections.
In the special elections, the incumbent Kelly Loeffler is doing incredibly well but is nowhere close to the 50% mark. Another Republican and staunch Trump supporter Doug Collins is also running in the special elections and he is doing as good as the Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock. This election is likely going to end in runoff and when it does, Kelly Loeffler will be the favourite during the election cycle.
Iowa
Iowa has always been a tossup state for the past two decades. However, it must be noted that Trump won Iowa by a 10% margin in 2016 and Joni Ernst won the senate seat by at almost 10% too. Beating an incumbent who won the seat by such high margins is quite hard. Iowa’s electorate consists of a huge population of farmers and Trump’s trade deals have angered the electorate of Iowa very much. Joni Ernst has supported Trump almost all the times and that hasn’t gone well with the people of Iowa.
On the other hand, Joni Ernst will be facing a strong Democratic Candidate Theresa Greenfield who has a background in agriculture and connects with that electorate very well. Her recent debate performance has been on par and that isn’t enough for Theresa Greenfield to swing a state immediately to her side. However, her campaign donation numbers seem positive and Biden is pushing for a win in Iowa too. Democrats are relying on Iowa more than Georgia to get their senate majority, so funds are flowing heavily into Iowa from both the Democratic side and Republican side. This election is going to be interesting on election night.
South Carolina
If anyone had told me in April that South Carolina is going to be a competitive state for the Republican incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham, I wouldn’t have believed them. The South Carolina Senate election is probably the biggest surprise election cycle in the history of US elections.
Before Lindsey Graham was elected in 2003 to the US Senate, Strom Thurmond was the US Senator from South Carolina for 47 years! Strom Thurmond won almost every election with comfortable margins and so did Lindsey Graham. In the past 70 years, Republicans have won elections in South Carolina with very comfortable margins.
But ever since the 2018 midterm elections, the possibility of a blue shift in South Carolina has been a point of debate for political pundits. In 2018, Joe Cunningham won South Carolina’s 1st district becoming the first Democrat to flip a US House seat from South Carolina since 1986. This is not an indication that South Carolina has turned blue, but this is definitely a concern for the Republican Party because it never had to spend much for elections in South Carolina.
This time, Lindsey Graham is going to compete with the underdog Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison who is running a phenomenal campaign this year. Jaime Harrison has been consistently narrowing the margins in the polls and has received a record donation of $50 million in a single quarter and that is the highest for any senate election in US history. Lindsey Graham is so scared about being outspent that he went on to Fox News shows and pleaded for funds, asking Republicans to donate to his campaign and help him win.
Jaime Harrisons’ chance of winning the election may be slim, but he has successfully pulled enough voters to him to bring a safe state under Republicans’ column to a Lean Republican column. That has to mean something for the Republican leadership and they have some serious turnarounds to do after the elections are over.
Alaska
In the Alaska Senate elections, the Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan will be competing against the Independent candidate Dr Al Gross.
Dr Al Gross despite competing against Dan Sullivan as an Independent, has mentioned multiple times that he will be caucusing with the Democrats. Alaska is a Likely Republican seat for Donald Trump, but except for the New York Times poll, every other poll indicates a close win for Dan Sullivan. The New York Times poll indicates an 8% margin win for Dan Sullivan. Irrespective of whether Al Gross wins or not, it should be noted that he has run a good campaign which might set the tone for future candidates to replace Republicans. Alaska used to be a safe state for Republicans, but now it seems like it’ll be moving towards the Likely Republican column.
Safe Democratic and Republican states
With the exception of Alabama and Michigan, every other state with a Democrat as an incumbent is a safe state for the Democrats.
In Massachusetts, the Democratic primary for the Senate seat was quite interesting. The incumbent Senator Ed Markey was challenged by Joe Kennedy III (grandson of former US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and Grandnephew of former US President John F. Kennedy). The primary was interesting because no member of the Kennedy family has stood in an election and lost since the 1970s. Despite Ed Markey and Joe Kennedy sharing similar views, the primary did seem neck on neck till the day of the primary and Ed Markey won the primary comfortably. It is going to be a comfortable win for Ed Markey in the election largely due to his liberal views that align with the Massachusetts electorate.
In New Hampshire, Rhode Islands, Delaware, New Jersey, Oregon, New Mexico, Virginia and Minnesota, the Democratic incumbents are in a safe place and the likelihood of them retaining their seats is very very high.
In the solid Republican states of Oklahoma, Louisiana, Tennessee, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Arkansas, the Republican incumbents didn’t face many challenges in the primaries and they’ll be comfortably retaining their senate seats. South Carolina should have been in this list, but Jamie Harrison’s campaign has changed the landscape.
Yeah. That’s it for the Senate analysis. I’ll try to post an article for the Gubernatorial elections just a week before the elections.
